Today, the joint investigation report by the Ethiopian Human Rights Council and the UNHR
on human rights violations committed in Tigray concluded that there is no evidence that genocide has taken place so far. While this is a bit of a setback for the TPLF, which has wanted the world to believe—since the 1990s, even as the TPLF was dominating power in Addis—that a genocide has been perpetrated against the people of Tigray, unfortunately the group still appears to be determined to make genocide a reality. This is confusing for people who don’t understand why the TPLF is obsessed with genocide, why its internet cadres began using #TigrayGenocide in April 2020, months before the war began. So many weapons have been deployed in this war, and among them: confusion and obfuscation.
In the past several months and more so in the past few weeks, we have been getting
testimony after testimony from allied Amhara forces fighting the TPLF that Tigrayan residents of cities in Wollo have been collaborating with the TPLF by a) attacking ENDF and allied forces from behind; b) forcing ENDF and allied forces to withdraw from towns and cities afraid of committing large scale massacres by firing back at the civilians (Tigrayans) firing at them; c) helping the TPLF locate and execute young Amharas believed to be a threat; and d) in at least one horrifying account by an IDP who managed to escape occupied territories, handing TPLF soldiers a list of women to rape. Another shocking development in the past several months has been the widespread use of child soldiers by the TPLF, which, according to experts who have studied the practice, is an “alarm bell” calling attention to possible plans to commit mass atrocities. The use of child soldiers by the TPLF and its attendant implications, along with the widespread deployment of civilian sleeper agents in Amhara cities the TPLF has taken over, serves to create an overall perception of every Tigrayan as a potential enemy, sowing fear and mistrust.
Many Ethiopians are looking at this and wondering: why are Tigrayan elites on the internet
either celebrating the TPLF’s advance via these toxic methods or silent about all this? How can they not see how dangerous this is for everyone, especially for Tigrayans who live outside Tigray? How can they not see that there is no “winning” after stoking all this lasting animosity? Do Tigrayan elites not understand that there can be no justice for Tigray—whether Tigray secedes or not—unless there is justice for her neighbors, for Tigray does not exist in a vacuum? The questions are being asked but nobody is answering them. Our academic class has largely failed to offer viable analyses of the ideas driving this war, as they failed over the past fifty years in regards to coming up with a fitting paradigm for understanding Ethiopia’s unique situation.
Here is my humble attempt to explain what I think is happening with the TPLF’s obsession
with—and with its active attempt to inspire—genocide:
The most successful psychopaths in any field understand that, in order to win anything, one
must risk everything, including the very thing one is supposedly fighting for. In the case of the
TPLF (and associated Tigrayan political elites), whose motto appears to be “give me supremacy or give me death,” that “everything” they are risking is the lives of ordinary Tigrayans in whose names they are fighting. We have seen over the past several months the extent to which the TPLF is willing to go to sacrifice ordinary Tigrayans in order to get what it wants: wave after wave after wave of young poorly armed and inexperienced Tigrayans were unleashed upon ENDF and Amhara and Afar forces in order to force the latter to waste ammunition and energy before the more experienced soldiers are sent.
So, for a political group who sends tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of
young Tigrayans towards open fire, violence against hundreds of thousands of Tigrayans is nothing if it means the TPLF will in the end win the “prize” it has been obsessed with for decades: genocide. You see, merely attaining power in Addis Ababa is not enough for the TPLF, whose core driving ideology is Tigrayan supremacy. Power is temporary; anybody can take it away from you, and the 2018 uprisings demonstrated that. Genocide is forever. Nobody can take away from you the story of genocide committed against your people.
The TPLF looked at countries like Israel and Rwanda and realized what a potent instrument
genocide is for establishing perpetual minority rule. We have some indications suggesting that the TPLF views Israel as a model. When the war between Ethiopia and the TPLF began in November 2020, Sekoutoure Getachew, a TPLF official, went on TV to tell us that the TPLF’s decision to launch a preemptive attack on the Northern Command was inspired by how the young state of Israel, feeling threatened by her neighbors, launched preemptive attacks against them in the “six-day war” of 1967. Another indication is the manner in which the TPLF, during its 27 years in power, invested heavily in creating a wealthy and strongly networked Tigrayan diaspora which has been used to lobby and influence western governments and organizations much in the same way as the Jewish diaspora aids the state of Israel. The TPLF has figured out that truth does not matter in politics, especially in international politics. If you have the wealth and the personnel to peddle your preferred narrative, if you have the military power to subdue the people you want to subdue, if you are willing to make concessions to external forces (US, Egypt, etc), you can do unspeakable things to others (much like the state of Israel does to Palestinians) and still manage to portray yourself as the victim.
This calculation is so far working for the TPLF, but nothing would seal the deal like the actual
commission of genocide—or something that looks like it—against Tigrayans. As we have seen over the past twelve months, western governments and organizations have shown their willingness to adopt TPLF’s narratives without scrutiny and can easily reward the TPLF with its much pursued prize, genocide, even if actual genocide doesn’t take place.
But why does the TPLF need genocide to establish minority rule? Because, as we saw in their
first tenure in power, you can only rule with an iron fist for a limited period of time. Leaders of the TPLF are adherents of Tigrayan supremacy: the idea that Tigrayans, as the “only” heirs of the Axumite empire, are the natural rulers of the Ethiopian state, and cannot be ruled by “barbarians” south of them. The only acceptable power arrangement for the TPLF is one in which Tigrayans are either directly dominating political power or are the perpetual kingmakers pulling all the major strings. Anything outside that, any system that forces Tigrayans to live on equal footing with everyone else, is unacceptable. And this kind of domination by a minority cannot coexist with a democratic system that the majority of Ethiopians clearly prefer. So, the TPLF needs something more potent than pure political/economic/military power to justify bypassing democracy to establish itself as the permanent ruler/kingmaker of Ethiopia. It needs a new and powerful raison d’être to justify its domination not just to Tigrayans and the rest of Ethiopians but, and most importantly, to the rest of the world. If a genocide were to be committed against Tigrayans (or if the U.S. decides to reward the TPLF with the genocide label even in the absence of it), then the TPLF can license itself to impose all manner of drastic measures aimed at “protecting Tigray and
Tigrayans.” This could be anything from redrawing internal borders (and taking debilitating
measures against the peoples whose lands are being robbed—most likely Amharas and Afaris—so that they will never be in a position to assert themselves) to ethnic cleansing and genocide against populations considered to be a threat. And when you oppose it, the TPLF will say “you committed a genocide against Tigrayans” over and over and over, and its western backers will repeat the same chorus. If they have been this loud over a non-existent genocide over the past twelve months, just imagine what it would be like if the U.S. or UN rewards them with that label.
And this is where the Ethiopian government’s major dilemma comes from: if ENDF and
Amhara forces fight to regain their cities and towns, they risk committing large scale massacres. The TPLF networks reported to be operating within these cities wear civilian clothing and fire at the armies from inside civilian establishments, in an apparent attempt to set up pro-Ethiopia forces. Pro-Ethiopia forces are essentially being dared to commit large scale massacres in order to win back their own cities. So far, they are choosing to withdraw from these towns and cities. But that is another problem: not only is the TPLF committing unspeakable violence against civilians and destroying infrastructure in those cities, the takeovers are emboldening it to continue pressing, giving young people back in Tigray false hope that they are winning and—this is very important—the false idea that they are being “welcomed” by locals in those cities. Then more and more and more young Tigrayans are sent to their deaths.
So the Ethiopian government is stuck between a rock and a hard place. One option is
allowing its forces to do whatever it takes to take back territory, thereby offering protection to its citizens in Wollo and elsewhere, but also risking the “genocide” label by western governments who have been eagerly waiting for such an opportunity so that they can blackmail the government into submitting itself to their wishes on GERD and other issues. Option two is avoiding large scale violence and allowing the TPLF to take power in Addis Ababa and do to Ethiopia what it wishes. One of the things it might do to Ethiopia, according to its leaked strategy document, is force a confederation that will no doubt privilege some states, i.e. Tigray, more than others, and that will no doubt be designed to subdue some populations—mainly Amharas and Afaris—who are considered obstacles to Tigray’s aspirations of domination and expansion (in the TPLF’s original manifesto, Afar is claimed as Tigray land).
And there is absolutely no doubt that the TPLF will make big concessions on the GERD in
order to compensate its western and Egyptian backers, if not redraw borders to make Benishangul Gumuz Tigrayan territory. If you think this is wild, read about the history of the state of Israel, the TPLF’s model state. The redrawing of borders that the TPLF undertook in 1991 was also wild at the time; people don’t think of it as outrageous anymore because the fact that they held onto the territory for 30 years has normalized the event in our minds. And that’s all the TPLF needs: another thirty years to normalize all the outrageous things they will do next.
One may argue that this is a false dichotomy, that there is a third or even maybe fourth option: winning these cities back without mass violence much in the same way the ENDF managed to do during its first campaign in Tigray. We all should pray for such a miracle, of course. However, one can also say that in the early days of the war, the TPLF was mostly withdrawing from Tigrayan cities to avoid urban warfare. And even when they engaged in urban warfare, it was not at the same scale and intensity as has been the case over the past four and half months or so. Starting in mid June, the TPLF’s use of civilians as human shields and fighters stopped being just another weapon in its arsenal and became a center of its operations. The near collapse of the ENDF inside Tigray right before its withdrawal was precipitated by the TPLF’s intensified use of “civilians” to trap the ENDF. Many ENDF soldiers chose to surrender rather than fire at those “civilians.” It is still possible to avoid large scale violence in the attempt to retake towns in Wollo, but the risk for it is very high, and is possibly behind the federal government’s reluctance to take decisive actions.
The point is: barring miracles, the Ethiopian government is positioned to lose something
one way or another. All that is left is choosing its preferred poison. Perhaps one thing to consider for the federal government is: the rights of Amharas and Afaris to defend themselves against the existential threats posed against them by the TPLF is much bigger than the national government’s concerns about its place and relationships with the rest of the world. If the federal government decides to risk the disintegration of Ethiopia, like it has done so far either due to incompetence or severe fear of committing large scale violence, that is fine for the federal government. But when you allow that disintegration to happen, please don’t leave the people of Amhara and Afar in a vulnerable position, unable to defend themselves and their lands. If we must return to the State of Nature, at least give these two peoples, who have so far shed more blood than anyone else in defense of their country, a chance to preserve their lives and their lands. Give them the resources they need to defend themselves before it is too late for them even if you feel it is too late for Ethiopia. Anything less is just a continuation of the gross criminal negligence that the federal government has been guilty of so far.
A Response To The New York Times Article Titled “Nobel Peace Prize: A Growing List of Questionable Choices”
I just read a news article on The New York Times that questions the decision to award the Nobel Peace Prize for Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed Ali of Ethiopia. It was a one sided article that only showed a quarter of the truth. It totally misrepresents the facts that led the Ethiopian government to undertake a law enforcement mission in the Tigrai region of Ethiopia.
Here is what the article says about the reason why Abiy ordered a “military operation” against the TPLF: “But in early November Mr. Abiy ordered military operations and airstrikes in Tigray, a region whose leaders had defied him by proceeding with an election that had been called off because of the pandemic.”
Obviously, the situation is more complex than what the writer depicted. There were many developments that the writer purposefully ignored because it doesn’t serve the writer’s obvious agenda of ridiculing the recent decisions of the Nobel Peace Prize committee. To mention a few a few of these developments: the government alleges and independent sources confirm and even the TPLF itself boastfully admitted that the TPLF attacked federal military camps killing soldiers and seizing many federal military bases and artilleries including some short-range missiles (if the writer did some digging he would have realized that TPLF’s mouthpiece Getachew K Reda and another high ranking official by the name Secutre Getachew are on tape confirming that they preemptively attacked the country’s military base and are capable of firing missiles that could reach Ethiopia’s capital Addis Ababa); 500+ mostly ethnic Amhara unarmed innocent civilians were recently massacred by the TPLF in Tigrai region; there were similar series of killings of again innocent and unarmed Amharas and other Ethiopians in different parts of Ethiopia which the Federal government is accusing the TPLF of orchestrating; the TPLF, for the last two years, has refused to turn in criminals accused of gross violations of human rights and corruption to the Federal government; the Tigrai region is currently being led by the military warlords that have committed so many war crimes and human rights abuses in Ethiopia for 27 years prior to Abiy’s term in office; the so called election the author is referring to in the article ended with the ruling TPLF winning 99.9 percent of the votes. Most of these facts have been verified by independent media outlets.
Did the author of the article mention any of these FACTS? Of course not! Who cares about the detail?! Facts were swept under the rug to make the headline attractive. Facts were sacrificed for a catchy headline. It’s almost as if CONTEXT doesn’t matter anymore- FACTS don’t matter anymore. The author wanted his readers to believe that Abiy, the Nobel Laurette, just woke up one morning and decided to wage war on his own people. This is Yellow Journalism at its best.
Does the writer of the article know anything about Ethiopia? Did he even bother to do a few minutes of research before writing the article? Has he bothered to reach out to the Ethiopian government and asked for its side of the story?
All of the facts I mentioned above have everything to do with the law enforcement mission Abiy’s government is undertaking in the Tigrai region against the TPLF and the criminals hiding in Mekelle. The selective outrage displayed in this article is so hypocritical of the New York Times and a complete and utter failure of professional journalism. Such dubious misrepresentations and intentional omissions display sub-standard click-journalism and media sensationalism the likes of which is common among modern day amateur YouTube broadcasters.
PM Abiy Ahmed in the Eye of Diaspora : ጠሚ ዐቢይ አህመድ በዳያስፖራ እይታ
[ነፃ ሃሳብ] የአፄ ምኒልክ ሁለቱ ገፅታዎች
የአፄው ነገር ዛሬም አልበረደም። ፖለቲካ እየተቸበቸበበት ይገኛል። ትውልዱም በተቀደደለት መንገድ ብቻ እየተመመ ነው። አፄው ውለታ ውለው ካረፉ አንድ ክፍለ ዘመን አለፈው። ነገር ግን ሞተውም በሀውልታቸው ትውልዱን ለሁለት ከፍለውታል። ይቺን አጭር ፅሁፍ እንድፅፍ ያነሳሳኝም ይሄው ነው። አንዳንዴ የማምነውን ወገን ሳጣ እና የትውልዱን በሁለት ፅንፍ መከፈል ሳይ ምነው ባይወለዱ እልና አድዋ ትዝ ስትለኝ እጄን ባፌ እጭናለሁ። አፄው የመሩት አንድ ሀገር፣ ያስተዳደሩት አንድ ሀገር ፣ የወደቁላት ለአንድ ኢትዮጵያ ለሚትባል ሀገር ሲሆን እሳቸው ግን በአንድ ሀገር ህዝቦች በሁለት ገፅታ ስለመታየታቸው ታዝቤ ነው። አንድም በጥሩ አንድም በክፉ የመታየታቸው ነገር ብዙ ተብሎለታል። ተፅፎለታልም። ትውልዱም ግራ እየገባን አለን። እኔ በበኩሌ ከየትኛው ጎራ መከፈል እንዳለብኝ አልገባኝም። ሁለቱም ጎራዎች የየራሳቸውን ምክንያት ያቀርባሉ። አንዱ “እምዬ” ሲላቸው ሌላው “ሂትለር” ይላቸዋል። የቱ ጋር ነው ስህተቱ የተፈጠረው? ታሪክ ዋሽቶናል ማለት ነው? የእውነት እንደሚባለው አፄው ብሔርን ዒላማ ያደረገ ጭፍጨፋ አድርገዋል? ካልሆነ ለምን የአንድ ሀገር ህዝቦች ስለ አፄው ሲነሳ ለሁለት ተከፈሉ? ከልጅነቴ ጀምሮ ስለ አፄው የተነገረኝን ክፉ ነገር ባላስታውስም ለሀገራቸው ያደረጉት ገድል ግን እንደ ተረት ነበር ሲነገረኝ ያደኩት። በህይወት ያለች እና ህያው ምስክር የምትሆን አድዋ ከእያንዳንዱ ኢትዮጵያዊ ልብ ለዘላለም ታትሞ እንደሚኖር ግልፅ ነው። ምኒልክንና የአድዋን ድል ለያይቶ ማየት ፈፅሞ የማይሞከር ነው። እኔ በበኩሌ አይቻለኝም። ግን ምኒልክ ሂትለር ነው የሚሉትን ወገኖች ስሰማ ልቤ መከፈሉ አልቀረም። ዘፈኖቻችንም ለሁለት ጎራ ተከፍለው እናገኛቸዋለን። በአንድ ወገን “ሚኒልክ ጨፍጫፊ” ሲባል በአንዱ ወገን ደግሞ “የነፃነት ታጋይ ጥቁር ሰው” እየተባለ ይዘፈናል። አድማጩም ለሁለት ተከፍሎ ይገኛል። ለትውልድ የሚተላለፉ እነዚህ እርስ በርሳቸው የሚጋጩ ዘፈኖች የአፄውን ገፅታ ምን ደረጃ ላይ እንደሚያደርሱ ለመገመት አይከብድም። ጌታቸው ወንዲራድ “የህወሓት የበላይነትና የትግራዋያን ዕጣ” በሚል መፅሐፉ ላይ በ ታሪክና ፖለቲካ ርዕስ ስር ስለ አድዋ ድል እና ስለ አፄ ምኒልክ የታሪክ ምሁሮቻችንን በማጣቀስ የግሉን አተያይ ይነግረናል። ጌታቸው ወንዲራድ የምኒልክ የሁለቱ ገፅታዎች መነሻ የዘውጉን አገዛዝ እንደ ምክንያት ያቀርብልናል። “ምኒልክንና የአድዋን ድል ለፖለቲካ ጥቅም ተጠቅመውበታል” ይለናል። ” በተለየ መልኩ” ይለናል ጌታቸው “በተለየ መልኩ ባሳለፍናቸው ሃያ ስድስት ዓመታት ውስጥ በምኒልክና በአድዋ ድል ዙሪያ ጠርዝ ለጠርዝ በቆሙ ሃሳቦች ውርክብ የበዛበት የታሪክ ንትርክ ይስተዋላል። ከቅርብ ጊዜ ወዲህ ደግሞ ንትርኩ አዲሱን ትውልድ ባቀፈ መልኩ በሶስት ጠርዞች፣ በሁለት ጎራ የተከፈለ ዱላ ቀረሽ ክርክር ይስተዋላል። የአድዋም ድል በዓል የልዩነታችን ቀይ መስመር አስማሪ ሆኗል”( ከገፅ 8–ገፄ 9 ልብ ይሏል)። በአንድ ወገን “ሀገርን ነፃ ያወጣ ምኒልክ” ሲባል በሌላው ወገን ደግሞ “ጡት አስቆራጩ ምኒልክ” እየተባለ ሁለት ፈፅሞ የማይጣጣሙ ገፅታዎችን ለዚህ ትውልድ ማቅረብ ትውልዱን ግራ ከማጋባትና ከመከፋፈል ውጭ ሌላ ጥቅም አለው ብዬ አላምንም። የዚህ ትርክት ዋና አላማ ጌታቸው እንደሚነግረን ትውልዱን ለመከፋፈልና ለፖለቲካ ጥቅም ከሆነ ብዙ የሚቆይና ረዥም እድሜ ያለው አይመስለኝም። ምክንያቱም ይህ ምክንያታዊ የሆነ ወርቃማ ትውልድ አንድ ቀን ነገሮችን አመዛዝኖ ይደርስባቸዋል ብዬ አምናለሁ። ለኛ የሚጠቅመን ግን ምክንያታዊ መሆን እና መሆን ብቻ ነው። የታሪክ ምሁሮቻችን በሁለቱ ገፅታዎች መስማማት ካልቻሉ ትውልዱ ለምን ብሎ ራሱን ጠይቆ በምክንያት ከተቻለ ሁለቱን ገፅታዎች በአንድ ገፅታ መጠቅለል አለበት። ካልተቻለ ግን ትውልዱ ሁለቱንም ገፅታዎች ተቀብሎ ከታሪክ መሸሽ አይቻልምና ከታሪኩም ተምሮ ልዪነቶችን አጥብቦ ለዚች ምስኪን ሀገር እድገት እጅ ለእጅ መያያዝ የውዴታ ግዴታው ብቻ ሳይሆን ጊዜውም የሚያስገድድው ነው። እንደሚባለው ምኒልክ ለሀገር ነፃነት የታገለ መሪ ከሆነ እሰየው። ለሁላችንም ነፃነት ነውና። በሌላው ወገን እንደሚባለውም ምኒልክ ሂትለር ከሆነ ይቅር ተባብለን በፍቅር ተደምረን ወደ ፊት መጓዝ እንጂ ያለን አማራጭ የታሪክን መጥፎ ጎን መተረክ ጥቅሙ ዜሮ ይሆናል። ልዩነታችንን አጥብበን ወደ ፊት በመጓዝ ለኛም ፣ ለሀገራችንም ፣ ለመጪው ትውልድም አሻራችንን አሳርፈን ማለፍ አለብን ብዬ አምናለሁ። አመሰግናለሁ። ፈጣሪ ሀገራችንን ይባርክ!!!
ጃ አዳም ፪ሺ ፲ ዓ.ም.
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